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| Here's how Beijing is scanning Kathmandu - Jul 15, 2008 |
By Sharad Adhikary/Beijing (China)
China is looking into events in Nepal following the advent of the republican order in a state of high alert and cautiously. Chinese officials who are busy in final preparation for the Olympic Games which are getting underway on Srawan 24 are worried by the unabated pro-Tibetan demonstrations in Kathmandu. Their assessment is that the government of Nepal has not adopted tough policy to curb nearly daily demonstrations in Kathmandu since the last few months.
It can only be guessed that Beijing must be feeling all the more uncomfortable since Nepal is entering a new political phase while Kathmandu streets are witnessing anti-Chinese demonstrations. “There is government in place in Nepal but is not working actively enough. It is far from a situation when there may be a government which had fresh mandate,” a Chinese diplomat commented, adding “the external forces are taking advantage of the political confusion and that of the transitional phase.”
How it should deal with varying political forces in Kathmandu is something which Beijing has not yet become clear about; instead it is concerned about the transitional phase which seems to be stretching. This incidentally is the reason why it is inviting political leaders, former diplomats, intellectuals and journalists and conducting interaction about different aspects.
Communist Party of China had extended invitation to CPN-Maoist supreme leader Prachanda to visit China soon after the election to constituent assembly as the leader of the largest party. But since Prachanda had to busy himself with new political equation, Minister of Information and Communication Krishna Bahadur Mahara and Prachand’s personal assistant Jokh Bahadur Mahara “Pratap” had come to Beijing in the month of Jestha. And apart from highly placed officials of the Chinese government, they had discussed things with leaders of the Communist Party of China.
CPN-UML General Secretary Jhala Nath Khanal too had secured the invitation of the north. But he too could not come just because he too was involved in power equation construction. That was compensated by CPN-UML Standing Committee members Bhatrat Mohan Adhikari, Ishwar Pokharel, and central member Surendra Pandey. Going by what Pokharel said they had discussed latest political development back home with high ranking leaders of the Communist Party of China.
The announced foreign policy of China is to refrain from interfering in the internal matters of any country. The same policy is in vogue in the context of Nepal too. But China seems to be taking added security interest in Nepal in recent months, especially just because of the pro-Tibetan demonstrations. Previously China was left to be alert following enhanced Indian and Western activism in Nepal apart from separatist reverberation from Terai and this like that. Beijing is of the view that the current Tibetan agitation in Nepal adds up to threat to China’s security and geographic integrity. This explains why China may step up security interest in Nepal.
Scouting for new ally
China has following election to constituent assembly lost its traditional ally (monarchy) in Nepal. Beijing is meanwhile looking for such like ally in Nepal. Chinese officials are conducting a review of their Nepal policy now wondering whether it was their folly to depend only on monarchy in Nepal in the days gone by. It has not yet become clear as to which force can be the Chinese ally in Nepal under the changing political scenario. Will it or will it not get to have to a political force in Nepal in future which would be much like the institution of monarchy and help China in much the same way as the institution of monarchy? It is indeed a difficult undertaking to say which that force will be given the political fluidity and the way foreign forces vitiate the atmosphere and interfere in every activity.
This perhaps explains why the Chinese have come up with new formula. Going by an official of the Chinese foreign ministry, Beijing will have equal relationship with any political party endorsed by the Nepalese people. Says: “Congress, CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist can all be good friends.”
Former Chinese ambassador to Nepal Li De Biao adds, “All the political parties of Nepal are good friend of China. There is no such thing as some parties being better friends than others.” Prof. Wang Hongwei, who is an expert on Nepal, says much the same thing. Says: Any political party of Nepal can be good friends of China. China’s will be extending support government which the people’s backing.”
New dimension in relationship
While on one hand China has lost its ally in Nepal , there are anti-China activities taking place in the Nepalese soil on the other. And even Nepalese internal politics has not yet stabilized. This is the reason why Chinese officials have repeated their security interest concern in Nepal.
Especially China is extremely stunned by the fact that Tibetan demonstrators are involved in disintegration campaign in Kathmandu in the run up to the Beijing Olympic Games. Their suggestion is that the Nepalese government should take firm step in curbing disintegration movement in the name of “Free Tibet” movement. “It is not acceptable to us when movement aimed at disintegrating our nation take place in Nepal”, Prof Wang says. “Nepal government must take immediate tough policy to stop such movement.”
It appears that the Beijing has fully understood the fact that no political leadership in Nepal can extend open support to China as it used to happen when monarchy was still around. China has meanwhile indicated that it must review its longstanding conception about Nepal apart from effecting similar review in security and economic spheres. Chinese have come to the analysis that Nepal has come under the influence of India following the 12-point deal between the CPN-Maoist and seven-party alliance in November 2005 in New Delhi which was mediated by India. The phase after has reflected direct or indirect Indian involvement in every events.
Chinese officials who are angry at the way the US and European nations have evolved Nepal as the base for Tibetan affairs among others have claimed that Nepalese sovereignty and territorial integrity has tended increasingly come under threat following the way India is becoming active. Their assessment is that the politics of caste and region which has been on the rise since the last few years could be taking Nepal towards “Sikkimisation.” “The patriotic forces in Nepal should take not of it and retaliate,” Prof Wang says, “China will help in such efforts. That is because our geography too will face question mark at that time.”
Nepalese experts associated with a think tank in Beijing claim that “Nepal is being Sikkimised in planned manner.” Asked about what will be the Chinese policy if Nepal goes that way, an expert had to this to say, “The Chinese policy of not interfering in others affairs will be suspended at that time. We might be left to take to policy of interference to boost our security interests. But what we have found is Nepalese officials are alert to avert any such scenario.” Just in China embarks on intervention in Nepal under the guise of fighting out the role of other powers, the diplomatic cold war in Nepal can turn into explosive one.
Chinese interest
The main security Chinese interests linked with Nepal are it should not be a place from where anti-China campaign is orchestrated while also there is not threat to Nepalese sovereignty. One more thing has come on to be added to it in incidental manner. That is the 1800 km open border between Nepal and India which of course is quite extraordinary thing.
Chinese are of the view that Nepal will have to regulate or control its international border if it expects to both evolve itself as really a sovereign nation and also become self-dependent in real sense of the terms. Tibetans who flee China enter India through this open border and sneak into Nepal unhindered if need be. The demonstrations which are taking place in Kathmandu currently has predominant and decisive participation of Tibetans who have sneaked into Nepal from across the border.
“Therefore when it comes to stop planned activities on Nepalese soil what is essential from among everything is to control the border between Nepal and India which has not restrictions which will go a long way in controlling the traffic of suspected Tibetans,” a
highly-placed Chinese official said.
Another Chinese interest has got to do with economic development. They have come to the assessment that Nepal will be able to take on political and external challenges once it becomes self-reliant and economically able. Beijing has suggested that the chief departure point to evolve Nepal as a developed nation should be the economic development after managing everything else.
Ashok Pandey, who is General Manager of Greater China region of Microsoft, is of the view that the area in which Nepal can take benefit from China is not only political but o economic as well in a which can contribute to overall economic development of Nepal. “Now our diplomacy must focus on that,” says Pandey who is in China since the last three decades “but what I have found is Nepalese leaders have tended to look into the issue as how much they themselves can benefit from it all rather than finding out as to how much the nation can draw benefit from relationship with China.”
The opinion in Beijing too was divided during the last two years when it came to decide how to help Nepal and what should be the policy towards it. The analysis conducted about election to constituent assembly and speculation have proved to be wrong. Chinese too have not believed that the CPN-Maoist would emerge as the largest party but the outcomes was quite the opposite. This has added to confusion. While Beijing may be involved in reviewing its Nepal policy in fresh manner, it appeared clear in wanting early political stabilization in Nepal.
INTERVIEW
Li De Bewao was Chinese ambassador to Nepal at the time when the Panchayat system which was introduced by King Mahendra who had secured Chinese support was crumbling. Excerpt of the interview conducted in Beijing with Bewao who was Chinese ambassador to Nepal through 1987-1991.
• Chinas has lost decades-old friend in Nepal with the abolition of monarchy. Who can be such a friend in the years ahead?
Li De Bewao : Relations between China and Nepal are extremely deep. The Chinese policy towards Nepal will not change regardless of nature of change in Nepal. The best Chinese friend in Nepal is the force which has been voted to leadership in Nepal.
• Why did not one did not see China playing any role to bail out its ally?
Li De Bewao : China does not want to interfere in internal affairs of any nations. That was something which the Nepalese people had to decide. That explains why we did not do anything. This holds good for future also.
• What will you do if Free Tibet activities go on snowballing?
Li De Bewao : We are alert, India and Western nations are adding to the problem by backing the Dalai Lama. The so called Tibetan movement is flourishing in the current political atmosphere of Nepal. But this is not a short-lived problem. This is the old problem which has come to the reaction once again. But Nepal has always maintained that Tibet is part of China. That is highly appreciable. Nepal government will have to adopt tough policy to stop Free Tibet movement.
• As a former diplomat, what would you suggest to Nepal?
Li De Bewao : Chinese relations with Nepal will still be guided along by the common security concerns of both the countries. But main needs of Nepal meanwhile are economic development and progress. China can extend tremendous cooperation in the development of Nepal. It is not the time for Nepal to spend much time on political debate. All the Nepalese leaders must give up political issues and take to economic agenda and development. China is ready to extend any type of cooperation in the development of Nepal. I was ambassador in Nepal during the movement of 1990. Nepal had to face a big crisis. I had at that told the Nepalese leaders on behalf of the Chinese government that Nepal must now concentrate on economic development. Political parties must come together if they want to record economic development. But I still see Nepalese leaders are divided amongt themselves. That is worst thing for Nepal.
• What kind of assistance can China give for Nepal’s economic development?
Li De Bewao : I have already talked to Chairman of Chinese Chamber of Commerce and other industrialists about what kind of contribution we can make for Nepal’s development. I am going to Nepal leading a big delegation of the Chinese industrialists. The objective of that will be to help Nepal in its economic development. There are too many industrialists who want to make investment in Nepal.
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